股市危机引发黄金避险价值，但美元仍有底气
关键词：股市危机
10月12日，因美元指数技术性反弹有所攀升。但因为美国股市接连暴跌，加上总统特朗普吃席批评美联储，导致上一交易日，美元指数暴跌，现货黄金持续上涨。但市场预期，美联储不太可能放缓加息步伐，美元多头仍有机会反扑。
周四(10月11日)，道琼工业指数收低2.13%至25052.83点，为两个月低点；标普500指数收跌2.06%至2728.37点。道指已从10月3日触及的纪录高位26951下跌约7%。美股重挫，部分原因是投资者对美联储稳步升息预期进行调整。
市场惊现较大波动，汇市跟随股市。周四美洲时段盘初，美元兑所有货币对下跌，但随后股指脱离低位，美元出现反弹。过去数个交易日当中，道指跌去两个月涨幅，按照本周的势头，很明显市场情绪正出现变化。恐慌中的投资者对握住一段时间的头寸采取结利交易。
美元自7月以来累计上涨2.5%，围绕中美贸易战的担忧以及对美国未来几个月将进一步升息的预期提供了支撑。但鉴于美国公债收益率下滑以及美国消费者物价涨幅弱于预期，交易商近期下调对美联储升息的押注。
美联储联邦公开市场委员会加息已经为黄金提供了一段时间的阻力，而美国国债收益率的上涨则为避险资金的流动提供了竞争。尽管如此，近期黄金价格低迷吸引了逢低吸纳者，因为本周未平仓合约数增加了。
投资者将本轮行情归结为美联储，美联储是目前加息的主要央行。美国9月CPI月率仅上升0.1%，年率上升2.3%，均低于前值。核心CPI年率录得2.2%，符合前值。该数据进一步打压美元，目前来看美元仍有望进一步下跌。
分析师表示：“若股票市场再度迅速恢复平静，情势发展没有扩散至其他资产市场，那我们认为就没有理由说美联储不应持续推进其升息计划，美元将暂时能够维持当前的强势水准，但进一步升值潜力有限。”
元涨势将进入末升段，秋天的涨势不会像2月至8月一样普遍上涨。在资金短缺和流动性环境趋紧的情况下，下一波美元反弹料主要体现在对股票敏感和资本输入型货币上。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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