追高黄金需谨慎，全球央行有大动作
关键词：现货黄金价格
在上周跌至19个月新低之后，现货黄金价格抄底反弹，本周稍后中国代表团将赶往美国重启谈判。周五将召开全球央行年会，预计美联储将释放鹰派信号，为9月加息再度曝露，因此金价仍受打压，但在金价未突破千二关口前，不宜追高黄金。
上周金价下跌2.2%，为连续第六周周线下跌，且创下去年12月以来的最大周线跌幅。较4月高点而言，黄金价格已下跌逾13%，因美国利率上升及美元汇价上涨。
本周稍后，中国代表团将赴美重启贸易谈判，而初步透露的消息显示，美方可能会施压要求人民币汇率适当回升。而美国总统特朗普此前也一再透露了不希望美元汇率过高的信号，这使得投资者开始押注美元已经“高处不胜寒”。
但即使如此，金价的上涨空间也有限，因为过去数个月的行情格局便是，当美元指数上涨时，黄金价格跳水大跌，而当美元指数回调之际，金价却往往不涨或者仅有小涨。
为期三天的杰克逊霍尔央行年会将在周五(8月24日)开始召开，考虑到全球央行年度会议在即，美联储仍将释放鹰派预期为9月份再度加息铺路，因此金价基本面仍将承压，当前的涨势仍属超跌反弹，在金价未能收复千二关口前，投资者不宜贸然追高。
黄金近期在土耳其货币危机和贸易争端中失去了避险魅力，因投资者更青睐美元。
全球最大黄金上市交易基金(ETF)——PDR Gold Trust指出，上周五其黄金持仓量下降0.15%至772.24吨，周四为773.41吨。
印度实货黄金需求上周升温，因珠宝商在金价跌至七个多月低位后囤货，此外金价下跌吸引新买盘并也推高亚洲其他主要交易中心的溢价。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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