非农报告，黄金面临浩劫？
周五(10月6日)欧市盘中，现货黄金徘徊于两个月新低，现报1269.50美元/盎司，因美元走势令黄金维持弱势。不过在晚间的非农就业报告前，市场情绪维持谨慎。
美元指数日内升破94关口，触及一个半月新高94.12，除了美联储加息预期，特朗普税改的提振外，欧元区政治动荡，以及英国政治不确定性都提振美元。但现货黄金并没有从欧洲这一动荡中受到提振。
在过去一个月，现货黄金下跌了近6%，9月8日一度升至1357.61美元/盎司，因朝鲜半岛局势缓和，美元走强以及特朗普税改更因素。而本次将公布的非农报告可能会成为黄金走势的一个分水岭。
外媒调查，美国9月季调后非农就业人口预计增加8万人，前值增加15.6万人，美国9月失业率料维持在4.4%，美国9月平均每小时工资年率料增长2.6%，9月平均每小时工资月率料增长0.3%。
由于市场预期较低，如果非农增速超过这一数字，薪资增速扩张，黄金可能面临下行的风险，下探至1250美元支撑。此前公布的美国9月ADP就业人数符合预期，美国9月ISM制造业和非制造业就业指数都好于预期。
另一方面，若非农增速不及预期，薪资不佳的话，现货黄金短线可能大涨，向上测试1287-1289美元区间阻力。而从往期时间反应来看，现货黄金面临急剧动荡，短线可能出现暴涨暴跌的情况。
好消息在于市场并不看好美元进一步走强。路透调查显示，多数主要货币兑美元未来一年料将守住2017年的涨幅，受访分析师并不完全确信美国政府有能力通过减税计划。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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