美联储逐渐收紧，年内通胀可达2%
周一(9月25日)，美联储票委杜德利发表讲话，称压制通胀的短期因素正在消退，预期中期内将达成2%通胀目标，预计美联储政策将持续循序渐进的收紧。他认为美国经济短期内出现衰退的风险相当低。
杜德利表示，压制通胀的短期因素正在消退，经济基本面“总体上十分有利”，美元走软、海外经济增速这两个因素应会提振美国贸易部门。
预计美联储政策将持续循序渐进的收紧，他预计，经济增速和薪资增长将略略好于均值，因此预计美联储政策将持续循序渐进的收紧。
杜德利还表示，美国经济短期出现衰退的风险相当低，且美联储有空间应对下一次经济衰退，到下一次经济衰退前，联邦基金利率将高于当前水平。但他也补充，如果有必要，美联储也可能再次启动资产购买计划。
美联储在9月利率决议上维持利率不变，并表示将于10月开始缩减资产负债表。会后耶伦的讲话暗示年内或还将会加息一次。
美联储主席耶伦表示，对于将在10月开启的缩表计划，缩表将是渐进和可预测的。通货膨胀率已经低于2%的目标一段时间，但压制通胀的因素应该是暂时性的。耶伦表示，未来几年经济将继续温和扩张，第三季度GDP增速将受累于飓风的影响。经济将支持继续渐进加息。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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