通胀之下，美联储加息将如何？
9月11日欧市盘中，现货黄金维持弱势震荡，现报1337.50美元/盎司，远离上周五触及的逾一年新高1357.61美元。而本周的另一焦点：美国通胀数据，可能为美联储货币政策带来指引，黄金又面临一道考验。
上周六朝鲜未能如期试射导弹，市场避险情绪降温，现货黄金周一早盘开盘一度跳水10美元至1334美元附近。分析师指出，金价的跳水重要原因也在于前期积累了过多的获利头寸。
而朝鲜半岛的局势并没有结束，市场可能会再度受到此类问题的冲击。周一联合国将就美国针对朝鲜核试验实施新制裁的草案进行投票。纽约时报引述韩国官员的话称，朝鲜导弹试验几乎确定会很快发生，尤其是考虑到联合国安理会正在考虑对其实施更严厉的制裁。
除了朝鲜半岛局势之外，本周迎来了美国通胀数据，这可能为美联储货币政策走向提供指引。此前疲软的通胀为美联储所忧虑，美联储主席耶伦也毫不避讳指出通胀是影响货币政策的不确定性因素。
若美国通胀表现靓丽，将增加美联储年内加息的可能性，从而打压黄金下行。纽约联储主席杜德利上周也称低通胀将加息的预期压低了。
美国原油期货在8月下跌了6%，但这一疲态自9月以来显示出逆转的倾向，目前回升至48美元附近。有分析师表示，美国原油产量可能将下滑，以及OPEC减产协议明年初到期后可能延长，有信心相信美国原油期货未来一段时间将回升至50美元上方。
美联储下周三(9月20日)将公布9月利率决议，市场预期美联储将宣布缩表，不过利率将维持不变。而紧随其后的美联储主席耶伦新闻发布会很可能就年内是否再度加息给出相关线索。如果通胀在此前回升的话，这是一个积极的信号。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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