黄金高点回落,美联储动向如何变化
金价于9月11日自一年来最高水平回落。此前由于美元走弱以及美联储加息预期减弱,支撑金价连续上涨。在9月14日美国通胀数据公布前,黄金多头的观望情绪开始升温。
金价于上周五(9月8日)触及1,349.29美元/盎司,为2016年8月以来的最高水平。在伦敦和纽约股票交易所,金矿公司的股票也不同程度上涨。自7月以来,黄金价格累积上涨近10%。但周一金价出现回调走势可能意味着在周四(9月14日)美国通胀数据(美国8月未季调CPI年率)公布前,黄金多头的观望情绪开始升温。
分析师表示,投机者正等待美联储提供额外的确定性,即推迟下一次加息,然后再增加黄金多头头寸,并进一步推高当前黄金的价格。美联储将于下周举行议息会议,并将更新经济展望和政策预期。由于通货膨胀和工资数据最近显示出了下行的压力,债券市场已经降低了在年底前再次收紧利率的预期。
但分析人士称,如果特朗普政府通过税收改革法案或基础设施支出法案,尤其在哈维和伊尔玛飓风的情况下,加息的可能性将会增加。
在特朗普去年当选总统后的两个月里,金价下跌逾10%,主要由于市场预期他将推动一项内容广泛的基础设施法案。分析师估计,对朝鲜局势的担忧只是金价上涨的一个相对温和因素。相比之下,过去两个月特朗普政局动荡致美元走弱在最近的金价上涨中发挥了更大的作用。
近几周,投资者青睐黄金,反映出围绕朝鲜导弹计划的紧张局势。数据显示,在7月份美国黄金交易所交易产品(黄金ETF)出现资金流出后,8月以来,该品种已经录得近11亿美元的资金流入。
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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