若美联储缩表，黄金价格将下行至1250美元
美联储政策不温不火、美国总统特朗普的经济增长面临风险，为黄金赢得了新的拥护者。Pictet财富管理货币策略师称，2018年金价应当高于1300美元，但如果美联储9月宣布缩表，短期内黄金将会动摇。
分析师称，随着美元走弱，美联储未来料只会在12月和明年3月加息两次，2018年金价应当高于此水平。Luyet的预期是基于通胀滞后于美联储2%的目标，而特朗普政府未能提供任何重大的财政刺激的情况下。考虑到通胀应该保持相对较低的事实，我们预计美联储不会在2018年加息超过一次，明年美国经济增速较弱和美联储预计不会有太大动作的前景，料将拖累美元，这应该会支持黄金。
因朝鲜的核野心引发了冲突，金价升至自去年11月以来最高水平，领哪个股市下跌，同时提振了美国国债。虽然这些地缘政治上的不确定性很难预测，但美朝之间的紧张关系是利好黄金的。
当前美国经济相对强劲，若美联储宣布9月缩表，美元应该从这些水平反弹，短期内黄金将会动摇。他预计金价可能会跌至1250美元/盎司。
分析师认为，任何对黄金的长期投资都需要对实际利率的路径进行评估。当利率下降时，持有黄金的机会成本下降，推高了金价，而当利率上升时，黄金价格也会上升。比较短期和长期实际利率后，他表示倾向于卖出。
但也有不少分析人士依旧看涨黄金，建议投资者将10%的资产投资于黄金，以对冲政治和经济风险。美银美林称，金价可能在明年年初升至1400美元/盎司，受美国长期利率较低和特朗普在推动经济改革方面缺乏进展的推动。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.