美联储安抚市场，央行明显不接招
尽管各大央行一直在安抚市场，让市场认为缩减刺激的过程将是“平稳过渡”，但一些分析师和投资者开始担心，这样的计划可能过于激进。投资者可能低估了美联储和欧洲央行同时缩减货币刺激计划的潜在影响。
美联储官员威廉姆斯最近，重申美联储有意缩减其4.5万亿美元的资产负债表。欧洲央行一直在发出类似的声音，预计将缩减其债券购买计划。
到目前为止，市场认同央行的态度。与2013年的“缩减恐慌”(taper tantrum)相比，债券收益率今年已经下跌，而股市却创下了新的纪录。短暂的动荡主要是由政治风险引发的，而不是对央行的担忧。
然而，越来越多的声音认为，投资者低估了美联储和欧洲央行同时缩减货币刺激计划的潜在影响。一些人现在认为，这是今年秋季和明年市场面临的最大风险。即使这个游戏计划看起来很精妙，它本质上就像拆除炸弹。
欧洲央行行长德拉基在欧洲央行行长会议上就通胀问题发表强硬言论后，6月下旬欧洲市场的大幅波动表明，退出刺激可能比他和美联储耶伦所希望的更为困难。今年9月，美联储料将宣布缩表，这将是对市场的第一次考验。
美国财政部借款咨询委员会(TBAC)估计，到2021年，美联储持有的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券将会减少1.4万亿美元。再加上超额的银行准备金(6500亿美元以上)，这相当于一个相当大的缩减。
分析师表示，美联储希望我们相信，缩表不会对市场造成影响，但我不太确定。如果你相信量化宽松对市场有积极影响，那么你必须在理性上保持一致，假设退出量化宽松政策也会产生影响。
令人担忧的是，缩表将逆转央行所称的“投资组合再平衡”效应。随着量化宽松政策的解除，这种影响也可能会出现。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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