美联储埃文斯:今年可能加息一次
美国芝加哥联储主席埃文斯周三(8月3日)表示，随着经济增长动力加强，今年可能有理由加息一次，不过他仍然对通胀太低感到担忧。
对于假设中的联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)今年晚些时候加息，埃文斯称，“在某些时候，你必须要做出判断，而这与我认为合适的政策决定非常接近。”
他指出，“鉴于数据正在改善，以及我的预期，我们可能会看到今年加息一次，虽然我倾向于在通胀大幅增强之前不要行动。”
埃文斯2017年将在FOMC拥有投票权。FOMC去年12月进行了接近10年来首次加息之后，今年一直按兵不动。美国经济增长不振以及全球经济不确定性上升打乱了FOMC之前加快升息步伐的预期。
根据联邦基金利率期货的价格，投资者认为从现在到明年底加息一次的概率仅仅略高过50%。
另外，埃文斯还建议，美联储应当引导通胀略超过其2%的目标，以防范经济遭受长期通缩压力的风险。美国商务部周二公布的数据显示，美联储青睐的物价指标个人消费支出价格指数，在扣除波动较大的食品和能源价格之后今年6月份同比上升1.6%。
埃文斯认为，“我们应当达到的一种状态是，通胀高于2%的可能性略超过继续低于该水平的可能性。”
他预计，在经历了令人失望的前两个季度之后，下半年经济增长将会加快，从而使全年经济增长平均水平达到1.5%-1.75%这个区间。不过这或许可以、也或许不能让失业率继续从6月份的4.9%继续下降。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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