欧洲央行宽松预期再次升温
关键词：欧洲央行宽松预期再次升温
11月13日(周五)欧元区相继公布了法国、德国和意大利的三季度GDP数据，不算太差也不是太好，这令市场预期 欧洲央行可能采取更多宽松措施。
具体数据显示：
法国三季度GDP环比增长0.3%，二季度季环比增速与一季度持平；同比增长1.2%，高于预期1.1%。
德国经济被疲弱的出口需求和投资拖累。尤其是新兴市场需求降低，对德国出口数据产生较大影响。德国三季度GDP增长0.3%，略低于二季度数据0.4%。
欧元区三季度GDP环比增长0.3%，不及彭博调查预期0.4%。一、二季度增速均为0.4%。虽然今年欧元区维持该季度增速已经优于近年表现，但仍未恢复欧债危机前0.7%的平均增速。
欧元区三季度GDP季环比初值0.3%，预期0.4%，前值0.4%。
欧元区三季度GDP同比初值1.6%，预期1.7%，前值1.5%。
欧元区经济增长有限将促使欧央行采取更多刺激政策。欧央行主席德拉吉周二重申，决策层已为扩大买债做好准备，并有可能在12月份推出其他宽松政策来拉动通胀。
华尔街日报援引IHS Global Insight欧洲经济学家Howard Archer今日评论，只要三季度GDP增速与0.4%差距不大，欧央行推出更多宽松政策的可能性依然很大。
但是欧洲央行理事会内部仍有不少反对声音。德国央行行长 Jens Weidmann周二警告欧央行应谨慎运用量化宽松，现在还没到使用量化宽松的非常时期，宽松政策只会令货币政策和财政政策之间的界限更模糊。
路透也分析表示，葡萄牙第三季度GDP增长陷入停滞以及芬兰经济萎缩程度大于预期，此外意大利经济也表现不佳，拖累欧元区第三季度GDP增速低于预期，表明欧洲经济发展仍有待提高，欧洲央行QE措施效果有限，这或令市场对欧洲央行采取更多宽松措施的预期升温。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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