期待消息面暗示 黄金现货低位盘整
关键字：本日现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
本日亚市时段，现货黄金交易价格虽然较开盘价略有反弹，但延续了区间震荡格局，日内波幅不超6美元，由于消息面平静，金价在没有消息面指引的情况下，稍微回吐了昨夜的平稳涨势，由于行情未给出明确指示，金价走势总体为纽盘过后的弱势回调，在没有新的避险头寸加入的情况下，金价在1315一线徘徊，市场期待日间欧元区更多数据的暗示。
【基本面分析】
关于美元兑一篮子货币方面，美元兑一篮子主要货币出现下跌，且连续下跌已有两周时间，虽然周五纽盘时段美国密西根消费者信心指数好于预期，但美元却未因此大受提振，美元指数收盘告跌，欧元兑美元升0.26%，报1.3648美元。美元兑日圆跌0.27%，报101.44日圆。美元走势趋于弱势，非美货币延续强势，这将促使国际金价被动上涨，同时以日元或欧元计价的黄金则获得支撑。
本日欧洲时段主要关注欧元区6月消费信心指数初值的表现，受上周五德国公布的6月CPI指数好于预期的影响，预计欧元区6月年率、核心年率初值将符合预期，但市场普遍认为，数据向好会减轻低通胀的压力，欧央行将继续实行宽松的刺激措施不变，现货黄金和现货白银走势长期来看有望扭转被机构看空的前景。
据国际投行报告显示，上周时段上海黄金交易所金价与国际金价的溢价已经连续第二日跌至负值，为-1美元/盎司，此前三周溢价也一直都在零值附近徘徊。溢价缩小则说明黄金投资市场当中已经有相当的资金撤离，这反映出亚洲地区的实物黄金投资需求仍然疲软。德意志银行认为，当国际金价回撤到1280-1298位置，将激发投资者的实物黄金买需，同时将出现空头回补现象。
【技术分析】
从日线图上看，国际金价本日受压于5日均线1316下方，布林轨道开口继续向上，反映下方筑底力量较强，而附图指标MACD和STOCH快慢线均形成死叉，STOCH线进入超买区。从4小时图来看，均线系统高度粘合，STOCH指标冲高回落后在超卖区运行，短期没有明朗的指引，建议炒金的投资者在消息面平静的导致金价走势胶着的情况下，长线持有并观望为主。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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