市场再迎超级周 现货黄金静待指引
关键字:现货黄金走势
【行情回顾】
欧洲盘中,伦敦金行情在出现了一波小幅跳水之后出现震荡回升,由于黄金近期处于上有压力,下有支撑的位置,导致黄金上周出现了将近一周的横盘震荡走势,而这种震荡走势将不会持续很久,而本周是“超级周”,尤其是非农就业数据的重磅出炉,将会指引伦敦金的方向。
【基本面分析】
虽然本周将迎来较多重要的经济数据,但是日内最应该重点关注的莫过于日内欧洲时段发布的欧元区6月通胀报告,由于通胀低迷是欧央行面临的首要挑战,欧央行是否采取进一步的宽松行动也主要取决于通胀数据的表现。由于上周五德国6月通胀数据出现改善,而欧央行将在本周举行利率决议,如果欧元区的通胀数据跟随德国数据同样好于市场预期,那么市场对欧央行7月会议再度宽松行动的预期会降低,这一预期可能会提振欧元的走势,欧元走强无疑令其对手盘美元再度面临严峻的下行压力,与美元反相关的黄金将获得支持。
而另一方面,美联储主席耶伦本周三晚间将在国际货币基金组织举行的活动上发表演讲,市场将关注其对联储加息前景,就业和通胀形势的看法。如果本周三耶伦的表态依然偏向鸽派,无疑将令美元再度遭受打压,利好非美货币和黄金;反之若其也开始对目前通胀流露担忧,或言辞倾向于提前加息,则将利好美元,打压非美货币和黄金。而若其措辞模糊不清或并未过多提及货币政策,则市场反应将相对平淡。
【技术分析】
由最新的黄金走势上看,今日黄金多头兴致不高,最大的原因在于上周多头在持续上攻当中虚耗了大量的火力,但是黄金屡次的冲高回落,导致1330上方的上行通道仍未能打开,因此黄金在短期内在缺乏多头资金支持的情况下,加上MACD红柱缩短,KDJ高位死叉等不利因素影响,不排除会考验1305等周线级别的支撑位。
日内支撑位:1308 1305 1300
日内压力位:1315 1322 1333
虽然黄金一直位于1315一线位置持续震荡,屡次上攻1322上方压力位置均无功而返,但是我们认为黄金近期的低位震荡只是一个蓄势的过程,由于1325-1330位置压力较大,因此黄金近期的震荡走势可谓合情合理,而且周线级别的均线正持续走好,并且在1300-1310这一区间形成较强的支撑力度,虽然不排除黄金短线会出现小幅下跌,但是逢低做多是近期最为有效的策略之一,因此我们建议炒金的投资者在1310一线适当做多,盈利目标1317,止损7美金
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本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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