现货黄金走势持续上涨 短期受避险情绪支持
关键字：本日现货黄金行情
【行情回顾】
本日亚盘时段，国际现货黄金成功站上1280上方，欧市早盘开市后继续于1280-1285区间震荡，因伊拉克引发的原油供应危机导致市场产生通胀忧虑，避险情绪促使大量资金从风险资产流入至金市，由于伊拉克内部叛乱持续，黄金现货价格在新一轮的避险需求带动下迅速走强。
【基本面分析】
关注美元兑一篮子货币方面，美元兑日元本日下跌，美元指数接近持平，该指数上周涨幅仅约0.3%，涨幅主要受美债收益率上升、伊拉克内部动乱恶化所致，促使投资者买进美元作为避险资产。欧元兑美元基本维持平稳走势，接近本月稍早欧央行宣布宽松货币政策触及的四个月低位。而澳元则由于国内经济出现回暖迹象，对美元出现轻微上涨。
经历十年牛市过后，国际金价本年首度进入了一轮熊市，以上海黄金交易所的黄金现货价格为例，去年下半年的高位录得285.6元/克，而今年6月12日的最高位则为253.7元/克，另外，国内黄金股价较去年同期高点下跌约50%。中国黄金协会数据显示，本年第一季度全国黄金消费量同比增长仅为0.76%，远低于去年同期25%的增速。
国际原油价格继续走高，因市场对伊拉克内部动乱局势表示担忧，伊国内部武装分子与政府军官交火或导致国际原油出口受阻，同时原油供应紧缺也增加了黄金的避险吸引力，现货黄金行情触及三周高点，亚洲股市日内出现大幅下修，因投资者担忧材料价格于未来上涨引致的经营风险。
【技术分析】
从日线图上看，国际金价上方受到关键阻力位60日均线的压制，下方重要支撑区域为1268-1277，若继续上涨行情，大田贵金属建议客户操作上在重要支撑区域上方的1280位置做多，5日和10均线形成金叉，附图指标MACD金叉持续放量，伦敦金价将获得进一步走强的动力。从4小时图上看，均线系统持多头排列，MACD快慢线在0轴上方运行，红色动能柱保持不变，RSI指标在超买区附近运行。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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