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乌俄地缘忧虑再起 现货黄金多头受益

关键字:本日现货黄金行情

【基本面分析】

俄罗斯和乌克兰两国天然气谈判始终悬而未决,进一步增加了地缘政治局势,支撑了国际金价。双方在周一所进行的马拉松式的谈判最终仍然不欢而散,未达成任何有效协议。俄乌两国都寸土不让,使得天然气价格问题再度陷入僵局。俄方则把周二定位乌克兰接受其天然气报价的最后期限。谈判将在周三早晨的布鲁塞尔重启,地缘危机忧虑力挺超卖的黄金反弹。

在上周四欧央行公布利率决议之后,伦敦金行情大涨超过20美元,这或许正暗示在经历三年的的下跌趋势后,黄金市场将面临一个主要的转折点,若未来金价延续与欧央行资产负债表的关联性,或许意味着有望在未来数个月收复此前56%的跌幅。

著名投资家加特曼表示,本年印度雨季较以往出现延迟,若雨季延迟,将对印度实物黄金购买力构成影响。由于印度大部分农田都没有灌溉系统,农夫有好的收成便需要依赖雨水。印度地球科学部部长指出,2014年雨季降水量将低于平均水平。加特曼指出,印度天气的确能影响印度黄金价格,印度的雨季延迟接近两周才开始,若此段时间内没有降雨,印度将从粮食的净供应国成为净买家,所以缺乏降雨量会对印度农民的财富带来决定性影响,从而降低了全球主要黄金消费国的购买能力。

【技术分析】

日线图上显示国际金价昨日向上反弹,布林轨开口缩小,金价反弹至布林中轨线下方,5日均线向上运行,金价运行于5日均线上方,而5日和10日均线交汇形成死叉,附图指标MACD快慢线在0轴下方水平运行,绿色能量柱逐渐缩减,stoch指标延续上行。4小时图上,均线持多头排列,金价受多重均线支撑,附图指标MACD线继续在0轴上方运行,红色动能柱继续蓄势。综合来看,短期内伦敦金价有望继续打开进一步上行空间,但上方受20日布林轨中线压制,若上试失败,金价回归弱势震荡行情。

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