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全球经济增速放缓 现货黄金光芒再现

关键字:现货黄金走势

【行情回顾】

欧洲盘中,国际现货黄金价格继续维持横向震荡走势。总体上看,黄金日内的振幅不大。在缺乏明确的基本面利好刺激的情况下,到目前为止,黄金的涨幅仍然受到限制,尤其是近期的阻力位置1270一线,投资者需要适当留意。

【基本面分析】

根据最新消息,世界银行于昨日下调了今年的全球经济增长预估至2.8%,而早前在本年1月份发布的预估为3.2%。世行在半年度经济报告中表示,新兴市场将面临阻力,因许多国家或将改变当前政策,而这是市场不愿意看到的。尤其是发展中国家,美国的恶劣天气,乌克兰的紧张局势,中国经济“再平衡”,一些中等收入经济体的政治纷争、结构改革进展缓慢等多重因素叠加,将给发展中国家整体经济增速蒙上阴影。

有鉴于此,世界银行将发展中国家2014年的经济增速预期下调至4.8%,低于今年1月估计的5.3%;预计中国今年经济增速为7.6%,高于官方此前设定的7.5%的年增长目标,但能否实现取决于经济“再平衡”的努力。如果中国经济出现“硬着陆”,影响将波及亚洲各国。由于世界银行下调了未来全球的经济增速,或许会引发黄金的避险需求,对于黄金是一大利好。

【技术分析】

根据我们对伦敦金技术分析所得,由黄金日K线图上看,近日来伦敦黄金价格总体上维持震荡上行走势,由于连续的小幅收阳,各大技术指标均有所好转,MACD双线已经出现金叉,KDJ三线金叉后持续走强,虽然短期来看黄金上方压力较大,但是在圆弧底已经正式完成的现在,黄金在技术上仍然具备上攻的能力。

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