美联储减码可能性增高 国际金价回撤
关键字：美联储减码、国际金价
【行情分析】
自去年下半年以来，随着黄金价格回撤，基金开始大举抛售黄金，目前其抛售的步伐仍未停止。以全球最大的黄金ETF-SPDR Gold Shares为例，目前其仅持有黄金866.32吨，较去年末的高峰期1353.35吨减少487.03吨，减持幅度超过35%。黄金ETF的持仓量持续下降，金价自然也难以企稳。
美联储上月表示，将继续执行每月850亿美元的买债计划，称因华府预算之战以及需要等待更加利好的经济数据。这让很多人开始认为，明年之前美联储都不会展开收缩政策的行动。不过，近期美国工厂生产和初请失业金数据强劲，又让美联储今年开始缩减政策的可能性升高。但大多数业内专业人士认为：作为传统的避险工具，在当前的金融市场环境下，黄金的表现无疑令人失望。从目前影响黄金价格的主要因素来看，尽管美联储维持量宽政策不变，但其何时削减甚至退出量宽政策的忧虑，随着美国经济的好转，将始终牵制黄金价格。
黄金价格在短期内仍然面临调整压力，如果本周非农就业数据好转，那么不排除黄金价格再度回撤至1300美元/盎司下方的可能。黄金价格只有经过充分调整，才具备中长期投资价值。
金价预测区间1295-1315美元，等候今晚数据突破。
【技术分析】
从图表上看，黄金周四整体表现为下跌行情，日线收盘为阴线。日线图显示，金价各指标方向处于弱势调整，建议中线持空；从短线看，MACD绿柱，但均线有拐上迹象，金价面临方向抉择， 关注上方阻力位置，建议非农前以高空低多为主。预计今日区间大概在1290-1321间运行，注意行情变化。
支撑位:1285；阻力位：1327
操作建议：
1、在上到1321附近受压力大空，止损1327，目标1305
2、当金价下到1300受支撑大买进，止损1295，目标在1315
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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