10.25黄金价格走势分析（2013）
关键字：10.25黄金价格走势分析（2013）
行情回顾：
欧洲早盘，贵金属小幅上涨刷新10月高点，午盘走势由美国数据驱动，初请和贸易数据后美元小幅反弹，打压黄金和白银高位回落，但随后公布的制造业数据意外走弱，导致走势再度反转，美元快速回落转为下跌，贵金属则重回日内高点。整体而言商品走势震荡，金银价格仍未上破日图重要阻力。
【基本面】
美国上周初请失业金人数下降1.2万至35万，高于市场预期34万，初请失业金四周均值也上升1.075万至34.825万，创7月上旬以来最高水平。技术性故障一度导致该数据在10月初大幅走弱，然而在美国政府关闭期间，申请失业补贴的人数连续两周回落，似乎显示财政僵局并没有增加企业裁员的意愿，维持16天的政府关闭对就业市场的总体影响可能偏小。美国8月贸易赤字进一步扩大至388亿美元，出口下滑继续对贸易帐构成下行压力。美国10月Markit制造业PMI初值从52.8降至51.1，远低于经济学家预期52.0，创过去12个月以来最低水平，Markit首席经济学家指出，美国政府关闭是制造业扩张放缓的主要原因，因财政前景不明压制企业扩张意愿。
总的来说美国数据表现不佳，虽然就业数据并未恶化，但制造业PMI意外下滑加重了投资者对经济放缓的担忧，此前部分经济学家担忧政府关闭可能对复苏步伐构成拖累，这无疑加重美元短期下行风险。如笔者在昨晚评论中指出，ICE美元指数已经接近中期重要支持位78.90-79区间，投资者需关注美元指数能否在该位置获得有效支持，下破无疑打开继续下行的空间，然而持稳则有望反弹修正前期超卖，可能会削弱金价上行动能。周五美国商务部将公布9月耐用品订单，该数据将反映投资领域最新变化，或进一步指引投资者对美国经济前景的预期。
【技术分析】
日图价格正测试1342 (斐波那契50%回调线和50日均线) 阻力，上破则有望进一步测试1364 (61.8%回调线) ，更上方阻力关注1400整数位，反弹破败可尝试高位做空。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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