黄金开展一波反弹浪 建议沽空
关键字：黄金反弹
【行情分析】
金价于上周四突破了下降轨道的顶部，最高见1345美元，源于美国在债务上限的犹豫不决令大公国际下调该国的信誉评级和本周二公布延迟了近3星期的就业数据大幅开差，令金价2星期内从低位1252美元反弹超过7%，暂时都于1330-1340美元行走，看似短在线行乏力，等待更多进一步的消息刺激，特别是QE上的消息。
上次议息会议当中，很多市场人士都美国认为一定会在会议后宣布局部退市，但最终美联储并没有这样做，下星期二、三有会有议息会议，这次市场人市就因早前债务问题掀起的风波认为今次甚至今年都不会退市，最快都要到明年三月，虽然分析师早已认为今年美国都没有条件退市，但猜测是没有用的，最重要的是做好两手准备。
昨日现货金受非农就业数据影响，波幅变小一直在高位每盎司1344美元至1329美元之间徘徊。
非农就业人口大幅开差，令美国对退市的时间表将会延迟，加上欧洲行公布十一月会对124间银行进行压力测，并且用严格的资本规定，消息拖累区内银行股下跌，危机将近，黄金受到避险情况支持在高位徘徊。
今日焦点关注美国初请失业金人数，预期34万人，美国上周政府部门关闭会对这次数据有一定的影响。
【技术分析】
金价从至8月28日的1433形成浪顶，一路跌至10月15的浪底1251，跌幅为182元金价。
之后在10月17日升穿日线图的下降轨,开展一波反弹浪。反弹浪的反弹幅度一般为跌幅的50%，用算式表达即=(1433-1251) × 50% = 91。
用浪底的值计算反弹浪的浪顶即1251 + 91 =1342,刚好与前天的高位1344相符。因此可以判定金价的反弹完成，建议沽空。
操作建议:
1338-1342区间做空，穿1346止损，获利目标1311。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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