即使非农利好 现货黄金走势或只受短暂打压
关键字：现货黄金走势
【基本面】
前期公布的1月份美国就业数据好坏参半。作为就业领先指标的初请失业金人数在1月份显著回落，截止至1月25号初请四周均值降至33.3万，位于两个月低点；与非农报告高度正相关的ADP就业报告小幅低于预期，1月ADP新增就业人数为17.5万；1月ISM制造业就业指数从55.8大幅回落至52.3，创2013年6月以来新低，显示制造业就业扩张速度在2014年初显著放缓，然而ISM非制造业就业指数却从55.6改善至56.4。目前多数市场参与者仍对美国就业市场充满信心，综合上述数据笔者对1月非农报告持相对谨慎的态度。多数分析师均认为非农新增就业人数将反弹至18万以上，接受华尔街日报调查的经济学家预测中值为19.5万，失业率则可能维持在6.7%或小幅降至6.6%。若新增就业人数显著回升（如接近或超过20万）则有望提振美元短期走强，并打压非美货币和黄金大幅回落，然而若非美再度低于普遍预期，则就业前景可能已经出现恶化，非美货币和黄金将有望获得强劲上涨动能。
【行情分析】
周三和周四金价走势连续两天冲高回落，尽管这不足以说明金价会转为下行，但是也反映了上方阻力较大，黄金上行空间受限，若继续受阻，后市将面临回落风险。考虑到此前美联储再度缩减QE都未能对金价造成太大打压，恐怕就算此次非农数据利好，但是只要未能令美联储缩减QE政策进度加快，可能也只能是短暂打压金价，低位反而会再度吸引多头买入。就日内交易来说上方1265美元/盎司是重要阻力位，金价已经是多次短暂刺破该水平后回落，维持在该水平下方就不建议买入。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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