黄金多头终结 避险属性逐渐丢失
关键字：黄金多头
印度《经济时报》(The Economic Times)12月30日报导,印度商品经纪公司Motilal Oswal Commodities Broker联席董事纳恩(Kishore Narne)表示,2014年国际金价可能将持续修正,因为在流动性收紧以及利率走高的环境下金价仍将承压,并预期2014年第一季金价可能跌至每盎司1,050-1,080美元区间。纳恩认为印度国内金价同样面临风险,因为印度央行如果稍微放宽黄金进口的限制措施,印度国内金价就有可能跟随国际金价的跌势。展望2014年,纳恩认为黄金已经不再是一项安全的投资。
金价今年以来大跌28%,正式终结超过十年的涨势,预期将创下自1981年以来的最大年度跌幅;反观标普500指数今年以来上涨29%,可望创下1997年以来的最大年度涨幅。包括股市上涨、黄金ETF(交易所交易基金)流失,以及印度政府压抑黄金消费等,都是导致金价下跌的压力来源。不过,受到政府多项措施造成供应短缺,以及印度卢比贬值的影响,印度国内金价今年以来则只有下跌3.5%,反倒意外受益。
法国兴业银行(Societe Generale)跨资产策略专家Patrick Legland发表评论称,黄金的避险属性正逐渐丢失。Legland表示,黄金在2013年金融市场出现系统性风险的时候并没有发挥其避险作用。意大利大选、塞浦路斯援助甚至美国政府停摆、债务上限谈判失败时黄金价格都没有有效走高。
Legland表示,黄金价格的暴跌反映出2013年影响了整个大宗商品市场的紧张情绪,而黄金受其影响尤其严重。全球各发达国家经济体通膨低迷对黄金市场持续呈负面影响,欧洲央行和美联储均预计2014年通膨将维持低位,而尽管日本央行释出了新一轮宽松,但日本通膨持续盘旋在1%的水平。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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