制造业景气佳 10年期公债殖利率上扬
关键字：10年期公债殖利率
受制造业景气优于预期、让联储局(FED)更有理由减码量化宽松货币政策(QE)的影响，美国10年期公债殖利率1日跳升至三周新高，已连续第5个交易日上扬，同时也是三周以来首度出现连涨5日的现象。
根据Bloomberg Bond Trader报价，纽约债市1日尾盘时，10年期公债殖利率上涨7个基点至2.62%，盘中最高一度上升至2.63%、创10月17日以来新高。公债价格与殖利率呈现反向走势。自10月25日以来，10年期公债殖利率总计跳涨了11个基点，将之前两周跌的18个基点回补大半。
美国供应管理协会(ISM)公布10月份制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)优于预期，较前月上升0.2至56.4，不仅连5个月上扬且创2011年4月以来最佳表现。PMI指数高于50象征景气扩张，反之则为萎缩，今年以来，仅5月PMI不及50。
圣路易斯联邦储备银行(FED)总裁James Bullard 1日则指出，过去一年就业市场的改善程度可能已足够让FED减码QE。他表示，失业率、非农业就业人数这两大指标在过去一年内明显改善，这是QE应该减码最强而有力的证据。Bullard今(2013)年在联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)对货币政策拥有投票权。
彭博社报导，根据美国劳工部公布的资料，今(2013)年9月份的失业率由去年同期的7.8%下滑至7.2%，而这一年来每个月新增的非农业就业人数平均为185,420人、高于之前六个月的平均值(每个月新增130,000人)。联邦公开市场操作委员会(FOMC)甫于10月30日宣布维持QE规模不变，但声明中剔除了「金融环境紧缩可能减缓经济复苏速度」的辞句，政策立场没有市场原本预期的那么鸽派。
不过，有「债券天王」美誉的全球最大债券基金操盘手葛洛斯(Bill Gross)1日仍旧透过Twitter发文建议，投资人应继续把资金押注在殖利率曲线前端的公债种类(即到期日较短的债种)，因为QE或许会减码，但联邦基金利率调升与否却是另外一回事。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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