印度黄金进口减 非石油贸易逆差下滑
关键字：黄金进口、石油贸易
《Scrap Register》网站9月23日报导,印度工商联合会(Assocham)报告指出,受到印度政府提高黄金进口关税等措施令黄金进口大减的影响,2013/14财政年度,印度非石油贸易逆差可望较上年度的818亿美元明显减少,预估将介于650-720亿美元之间。不过,报告称,在原油价格持续上涨的压力下,石油贸易逆差预估将会高于上个财年的1,090亿美元。
报告指出,本财年首季(4-6月),印度非石油贸易逆差仍高达240亿美元,主要因为金价在第二季的大跌带动了需求,印度的黄金进口也随之攀高;但此后印度政府再度上调黄金进口关税至10%,并要求进口的黄金当中必须有20%是用于加工之后的再出口,这令黄金的进口明显减少。
协会主席卡普尔(Rana Kapoor)表示,7、8月份印度的整体出口有了明显的恢复,主要是受惠于卢比的贬值;尽管如此,政策面仍应该持续作为,确保在印度出口能够有超过两位数增长的同时,进口能够保持较低水平,这样才能够有助于印度经常帐赤字的改善。
印度政府9月10日公布的数据显示,8月份黄金进口额较前月的22亿美元大减七成至6.5亿美元,主要因为政府祭出调高关税以及限制进口等措施,希望藉抑制黄金消费来避免经常帐赤字的进一步攀高。不过,印度总理经济顾问C. Rangarajan预估,截至明年三月底的本财政年度,印度金银进口额预估约为400亿美元,其中黄金进口额预估为380亿美元,此将与上个财政年度的380亿美元进口额相当。
渣打银行(Standard Chartered)最新报告则认为,由于节日季即将到来,加上今年雨季丰收,印度的黄金进口可能很快就会恢复到较高水平。根据印度农业部数据,今年的雨季使印度农民增收7%。高收入将使印度农民在即将到来的节日季购买更多黄金,印度的黄金消费有七成是来自于农村。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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