加特曼：黄金不是避风港
关键字：黄金
曾在6月底金价跌至本波低点之际喊出“黄金最坏状况可能已过”的《加特曼投资通讯(The Gartman Letter)》创始人及主编、知名经济学家加特曼(Dennis Gartman)要大家知道,黄金其实是一种货币,而不是大众所误认的避风港。
CNBC、International Business Times报导,加特曼23日在ETF暨基金理财网站IndexUniverse.com举办的第六届“Inside Commodities”会议上指出,黄金是一种货币、不是原物料,以货币交易的概念更能轻松理解黄金走向。
其实,技术上来说,黄金可作各种不同用途,应该是原物料的一种。不过,加特曼表示,在市场交易中,金价的动态比较像货币,而在外汇市场中,各国货币是以相对于他种货币的价值作交易。也就是说,金价在相对于弱势货币时表现最好,因此黄金投资者应该购买以日圆计价的黄金。
加特曼说,日本政府已宣示要将货币基数(monetary base)扩大至少一倍;在其他条件不变的情况下,日圆持续贬值会让以日圆计价的原物料价格前景看好。他并建议,投资人最好不要买进以美元计价的黄金。
人称“新末日博士”的纽约大学经济学教授鲁比尼(Nouriel Roubini)23日在同一场会议上则预期,金价可能会在今(2013)年底跌至每金衡盎司(troy ounce)1,300美元,并于明年底下探1,000美元,远低于2011年底的1,900美元高峰。他并认为,原物料的超级循环可能已经告终。
鲁比尼23日表示,全球经济在美国的带领下踏着无力的步伐(anemic)缓步复苏,这意味着投资人应该加码美国股市。他并指出,利率上扬、美元走升意味着未来几年原物料价格与债券价格都将随着美国经济持续复苏而面临压力,预期明年大多数的原物料价格都可能下跌。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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