熊傲君:市场开始预热,未来两者或将直接决定黄金命运!
关键词:黄金价格走势,市场基本面
导语:马上进入千呼万唤的十一月份,等待大家的是更多的风险事件登场,其中美国大选自然首当其冲,尤其是一旦出现政权的更替,那么整个美国市场的政策可能就会发生180度的转变,而除此之外,众多利率决议和各国的GDP数据也将登场,黄金三个月的高位震荡有望终结。
本周三大央行加GDP数据预热
本周首先登场的有三大央行利率决议,将会提前给市场进行预热,其中加拿大央行、日本央行和欧洲央行都会公布利率决议,并且发表报告,如果这些央行释放进一步的货币宽松信号,那么将有望给金价提供支撑。虽然未必会直接起到决定性的指引,但至少会使得目前不清晰的走势增加一些线索。
而除了要留意各大央行的情况下,本周也有多国的GDP数据出炉。美国、欧元区、德国等国都会公布第三季度GDP数据,欧元区受疫情二次爆发的影响,经济状况非常引人关注。而美国的GDP更是可能为下周的利率决议增加悬念,另外本周还要关注美国通胀数据PCE数据,所以黄金美元也有可能提前在本周开始出现波动。
美国大选利率决议携手点燃市场
不过说到关键,依然是下周的超级爆炸周,届时会有美国大选,美联储利率决议以及非农数据的争相登场,而美国大选自然是重中之重。现阶段,特朗普面临失败的可能性极大,一旦拜登获胜,特别是如果民主党也同时获得参议院控制权的话,可能会出台大规模的刺激方案,而美元将会受到严重打压。
紧接大选之后,就是11月的美联储利率决议,尽管本次会议没有点阵图公布,但是会否进一步扩大宽松力度也是目前市场的焦点所在,毕竟货币政策始终是长期影响金价的主要因素。而每月第一周公布的关键非农数据也会在周五登场,届时或会添一把火,所以未来这两周,大家一定要做好准备。
自今年疫情带来冲击以来,黄金价格一直表现不俗,不过创出高位后,节奏也是明显放缓,随着月底的靠近,各种风险事件即将落幕,答案很快将揭晓,所以大家值得期待一下,新一波的趋势到底是黄金再创辉煌重回2000大关,还是面临调整回落!
本文来源: 大田环球贵金属
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