加拿大資料超出預期，美元有所回落
關鍵字：加拿大資料超出預期
在1月31日，加拿大公佈了11月份的GDP資料，資料結果的表現超出市場預期，美元兌加元從兩個月的高位開始回落，短線急速下挫。
具體資料顯示，加拿大11月季調後GDP月率實際公佈0.1%，預期0%，前值-0.1%；加拿大11月季調後GDP年率實際公佈1.5%，預期1.4%，前值1.2%。
加拿大央行在最新的決議中向市場釋放了鴿派基調。該行認為，中東緊張局勢的急劇升級可能對經濟產生重大影響，不過假定這種風險不會成為現實。貿易緊張局勢的總體影響預計將使全球GDP到2021年底下降1.2%，低於10月份預測的1.3%。
加拿大央行表示，自10月貨幣政策會議以來，各項指標喜憂參半。經濟下行一些程度上與特別因素有關，例如罷工和天氣。加拿大的資料表明，與央行10月份的預測相比，短期內加拿大經濟增長將較為疲弱，產出缺口將擴大。
該央行預計2020年第一季度經濟增速為1.3%，10月份時預計為1.7%。預計2020年全年加拿大實際GDP增速為1.6%，此前預期為1.7%。預計2021年全年加拿大實際GDP增速為2.0%，此前預期為1.8%。
市場關注美墨加協定的簽署。美國和墨西哥已經完成了批准新版北美大陸自由貿易協定的立法程式，而加拿大方面，在加拿大聯邦議會眾議院和參議院批准該協議後兩個月，該新版自由貿易協定就可以正式生效。
雖然特魯多自由黨在聯邦議會中沒有占到多數席位，但在一些反對黨議員的支持下通過新版北美自由貿易協定應該沒有問題；現在的問題只是時間，因為走完眾議院和參議院的立法審批程式畢竟需要一定的時間。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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