王垣鑫：鹰派鲍威尔降息反重挫黄金
昨日金价大部分时间集中在1427-1433区间震荡，晚间尽管美联储7月利率决议如期降息25个基点，是该央行自2008年以来首次降息后，但降息25个基点预期早已被市场消化，再加上美联储主席鲍威尔言论偏鹰，令美元指数再度刷新两年高位，施压金价大跌最低触及1404美元/盎司一线。
美联储如料降息
北京时间8月1日凌晨，美联储宣布采取逾十年来首次降息行动、将基准利率下调25个基点，但此次降息，有人支持有人反对。不少反对者认为美联储的降息是向特朗普屈服的表现，而美联储应该保持其独立性。特朗普一直对美联储2018年的加息之举耿耿于怀，甚至在降息前夕，特朗普曾在推特上表示，他想要利率“大幅下调”。而在降息结果出来后，特朗普则表示鲍威尔“让我们失望了。” 特朗普认为市场希望从鲍威尔以及美联储那里听到的，是一个长期积极降息周期的开始，与欧盟和全世界其它国家保持同步。
市场上有不少声音认为本次美联储降息之举实属向特朗普屈服的表现，鲍威尔本人一再坚称，他和他的同事们在决定利率政策时并没有将政治因素纳入考量，也不是为了展现自己的独立性去实施政策，美联储的降息行为主要是为了应对风险，其中最主要的风险是是低通胀，鲍威尔可能也会把这个因素当做美联储决定降息的一个理由
现货黄金大幅受挫
美联储利率决议公布后，虽然如市场预期下调基准利率，但由于此消息基本已经被市场所消化所以并未能体现涨幅，随后鲍威尔发表鹰派言论击溃现货黄金心理防线，金价随机大幅下滑最低一度触碰1404美元/盎司一线，从周线级别来看，本波下行有下破近段时间金价上行主要支撑ma5均线的迹象，不排除以本次降息为黄金大级别调整的起点，建议留意日线方面ma5均线压力的有效性，下方重点留意1400美元/盎司整数关口支撑，若跌破金价后市或将往1340-1360区间回调。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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