林幽沃：央妈再度降准拯救流动性
在进入2018年后，沪指在1月底到达高位3587.03点后失去动力在高位徘徊，近期由于美联储的加息加速预期和欧银确认退出QE的影响，全球预期将正式踏进资金面收紧的局面，A股受到影响跌破3000点大关，最低下行至2837.14点。截止发稿前，沪指最大跌幅达749.89点，接近21%的跌幅。
定向降准
在今年央妈曾两次定向降准。1月18日主要对在去年针对小微企业、贫困群众和学生的贷款增量占比达到1.5%的商业银行的降准50个基点，释放临时流动性约2万亿元。并于1月25日实施普惠金融定向降准，释放流动性约4500亿元。如果上述比例超过10%，将可以额外再降准100个点。
定向降准是针对不同金融机构的债务问题进行帮助，今年一季度，中国境内公募债券的违约只数升至2017年二季度以来新高，信用风险加速暴露——民营企业、上市公司频现兑付危机、连环违约，民企债被认为是违约风险最高的领域。
A股
未来股市可能还将面临一定的压力，由于资金面的紧缩以及贸易问题上的影响，股市资金在不断流出向其他渠道进发。但在抛压巨大的情况下，前期优质白马股有可能会跌出适合的价位介入，可以关注。
目前央妈有可能向大型金融机构实施定向降准，释放大量资金，利用政策工具帮助中小型企业渡过债务问题的危机，从而缓解金融压力。A股有望从抛压中得到援助，但新兴市场依然会受到欧美央行的紧缩货币政策影响，进入盘整期。
对于当前国内环境，大田环球贵金属林幽沃认为，政策偏向帮助企业渡过债务问题的危机，暂无鼓励投资的迹象。而A股短期内有望超跌反弹，但上涨的时机暂未到。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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