熊傲君：市场避险消退，金价短期待修正
2018.03.28黄金策略
昨日回顾：金价上周加息正式拉起反攻的帷幕，周一最高一度涨势1357附近，不过随后受到此处的趋势线反压，金价开始迈向回调走势，昨日金价高位回落，后市回到1350一线下方，考虑避险情绪消退，市场总体重回谨慎，周五也是美国节假日，因此市场交易开始减少，金价走势重回短期震荡较为合理，所以早间反复测试1340一线，甚至有机会进一步回调，接下来本周恐关注1330-1350区间为主。
消息面：在上周加息后，市场利空出尽，而随后特朗普打开贸易战序幕，导致全球美股出现暴跌，金价由此受到避险情绪，近两日，避险情绪有所消退，半岛地缘政治形势在改善。报道指出，金正恩表示将愿意放弃核武器，并将于今年4月与美国总统特朗普举行峰会。市场关注晚间美国四季度GDP数据修正值的表现以及PCE物价指数的数据表现，另外本周是耶稣受难日，欧美市场休市一天，这可能导致随后的市场走入较为平静的局面。
今日展望：目前价格在1340附近上方徘徊，由于日内呈现震荡下行，因此今日可能暂不宜做多过于激进，整体看涨格局不变，长线看多不变，但是短线需要面临调整震荡，晚间美盘需持续关注1338-1340区间支撑，若能守住美盘早段冲击，以及众多数据的打压后，那么可以尝试接多单，反之若失守，我们就等待日线支撑再去考虑，例如下方1331-1333区间，此处必须要做多，只是担心能不能到达罢了，本周收周线加月线，不太可能再走得过急，好戏可能还是在于4月份。
从现货黄金日线图看：前期加息后大涨，并触及趋势线附近压力承压，目前进入回调当中，日线形态暂不佳，昨日走出阴包阳，偏调整格局居多，这种行情做多需要等待进一步破位确认才能跟进，或下方强劲支撑处再去考虑，现阶段均线组呈现多头排列，K线在MA5下方，后市关注MA5与MA10区域，MACD指标上穿0轴后速率有所减弱，等待后市进一步确认，操作上建议日内关注区间高抛低吸为主，重点为1340-1350区间，若破位关注1333-1343区间。
操作建议： 1300-1320长线多单继续耐心持有，今年目标依旧是1400上方，加息已过，低点或也再难给予，继续轻仓持有即可。短线关注1340-1350区间，破位关注1333-1343区间，建议观看欧盘强弱做日内高抛低吸为上。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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