美联储埃文斯希望2016年中加息
关键词：美联储埃文斯希望2016年中加息
芝加哥联储主席埃文斯周四(7月9日)就美国经济预期以及货币政策前景发表了评论。
加息时机方面，埃文斯希望等到2016年再进行首次加息。鉴于经济前景预期略微下调，通胀也未达到其预期，埃文斯希望等到2016年中再加息。他认为，等更长时间以确保风险消退再行动是比较谨慎的做法。
埃文斯认为，面临欧洲、中国以及其他新兴市场的风险，于加息问题上等待更长时间并不会造成伤害。全球风险在近几周来上升，低通胀仍是美国和海外面临的疑虑。
埃文斯预计2015年美国GDP将增长2%，2016年料将增长2.75%，2017年料将增长2.5%；预计美国2015年失业率为5.3%或更低的水平，2016年年底料将降至5.1%；预计美国2016年年底的核心消费者支出(PCE)通胀率为1.5%，2017年年底料上升至1.7%。
埃文斯担心通胀预期并不像部分人所想象的那么稳固。他表示，对通胀率于未来两年内升向2%或以上需要更多的信心。
埃文斯还指出，在消除劳动力市场闲置问题上仍然还有很远的路要走。
另外，在首次加息时机上，埃文斯表示，当美联储开始加息时，将不会有任何人感到意外。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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