中国央行周小川：须警惕通胀趋势
关键词：警惕中国央行再次降息
3月30日讯中国央行(PBOC)行长周小川上周日(3月29日)在出席博鳌论坛时就通缩问题表示，须警惕通胀趋势会否继续低走、会否出现通缩。
周小川(现年67岁)在博鳌亚洲论坛上表示，中国经济增速的回落可能急了一点，但货币政策仍有调整余地。此番讲话增强了外界对中国将进一步放松货币政策的预期。
周小川说道：“中国的通货膨胀也是在下降，因此我们必须要谨慎、警惕看一下通货膨胀趋势是不是会继续持续下去，是不是会出现这种通货紧缩的情况。”
周小川指出，中国既有价格方面的调整余地，也有数量方面的调整余地，可以综合运用手段来调节经济。
分析师指出，周小川在国际场合发出通缩风险的警告，这释放出了两个重要信号。
信号一：全球通缩阴霾日益浓厚，中国领导层也认为本国通缩压力正不断加剧，这对“稳经济”构成威胁。
信号二：周小川以央行行长身份敲响通缩“警钟”，可预示当局对抗通缩已有政策准备。尽管当局要调整汇率、货币政策不无掣肘，但在通缩风险日益临近的背景之下，进一步压低人民币汇率、宽松货币的政策，已“如箭在弦”。
今年来人币明弱暗强，尽管人币兑美元累计贬值约0.2%，但兑欧元却大涨逾10%。中国要维持人币一定程度强势，因要以行动证明不加入货币战，避免招致以邻为壑的批评，也借人民币兑美元外的货币升值，助推人币国际化。
但其他国家央行仍不断努力打压本国汇率，以输出通缩，假如人民币继续明贬实大涨的势头，中国将无异成为全球主要通缩输入国，从而陷入更加不利的境地。在当局已敲响通缩警钟下，人民币汇率恐需较明显地走软，才有望缓解源源输入的通缩重压。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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