美银美林：利好因素难支撑金价持续上涨
关键字：黄金价格
金价在上涨经历了3%的大幅上涨，但周一一度突破1390美元/盎司后，金价有了显著回落。
美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)金属策略师Michael Widmer认为逆风很快会终结这股涨势。Widmer说道：“市场中的一些因素让我们相信这不是能持久的上涨。”
乌克兰的局势被认为是金价近期上涨的最大推动因素，此外还有对中国经济增长的担忧等。Widmer则认为，尽管近期伦敦金的走势非常好，但欧元区的通缩担忧将影响金价上涨。
欧元区疲软的消费价格意味着欧央行不太可能很快提高利率，黄金从传统上一直和利率有逆相关关系，并且被用来作为对冲通胀的物品。欧元区显示出很小的通胀迹象以及很小的紧缩货币政策的预期，Widmer认为对金价将不会有什么推动作用。
美国数据的疲软也是推动金价的因素，但是很多分析师认为，天气原因是之前疲软数据的主因。Widmer认为这些“忽然的担忧”可将金价拉低到1200美元/盎司。“我会买入黄金，但交易会非常灵活。”
BullionVault的研究主管Adrian Ash在上周五的一份报告中称这样的上涨这对黄金投资者来说很少见的，他认为近期金价上涨是没有疲软的直接结果。此外，2013年金价大跌中，亚洲实物需求大增，而到了今年金价这波上涨中，黄金ETF也开始重现持有量增加。
美银美林和EPFR Global在上周五的一份研究中显示，商品基金尤其是黄金和白银的流入量在过去三周是2012年10月以来最强的。Widmer也认为基金投资者们，也就是那些“块钱”，在买入黄金，将金价推高。但相对的，他认为“慢钱”，也就是亚洲买家们是黄金的卖家。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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