野村证券：黄金重回多头 未来2年看涨
关键字：黄金多头
去年惨跌不已的黄金，今年将扬眉吐气重回多头？野村证券(Nomura Securities)分析师5日调升黄金目标价，主要是促使金价在2013年暴跌28%的因素似乎不复存在。
Barron`s报导，野村分析师Tyler Broda等人报告中指出，如同凤凰从灰烬中重生，周期性黄金似乎也恢复生气。他们调升今明两年的黄金目标价至1,335、1,460美元，远高于先前预估的1,138、1,200美元。银价也上修至21.52美元，高于先前估计的16.25美元。
理由何在？野村认为，指数股票型基金(ETF)失血逐渐缓和，避险基金不再恐慌，金矿业者也因去年卖压缩减新的开采计划，实质利率当下也没有改变迹象。
报告表示，去年金市改变迅速，价格反应剧烈。之前情况并非持续多年的下行趋势，因为投资减少逐渐对价格造成压力，如今许多驱动金价的变量某个程度上已经重置。ETF和纽约商品期货交易所(COMEX)部位不再像2013年一样威胁金价，黄金生产商也延后下一阶段的成长计划，保护资产负债表。亚洲名目收入成长支撑长期需求，加上后量化宽松(QE)的宏观经济环境变化，与减少投资可能性降低，改变了他们的黄金平衡模式，目前预期金价未来三年将走高。
野村还提出非正统理论，称去年黄金卖压可能是中国套利交易造成。报告称中国去年或许从中英的金价价差中套利，ETF部位可能因此下跌和COMEX也跟着平仓。
彭博社1日报导，根据纽约大学史登商学院教授Rosa Abrantes-Metz、穆迪(Moody`s Investors Service)常务董事Albert Metz连手草拟的研究报告，伦敦黄金定价恐已遭相关银行操纵长达10年。这份报告显示，2004-2013年期间伦敦下午盘(注：当地时间下午3点)定价时段经常出现现货价大涨大跌的现象，其中有6个年度是跌(超过三分之二的机率)多于涨。单就2010年来说，定价时段出现大跌的机率高达92%。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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