FED官员建议加息 贵金属重启跌势
关键字：贵金属走势
美联储削减QE曾是2013年黄金市场挥之不去的痛。然而，在美联储去年12月底决定削减QE以来，黄金却是表现最佳的资产。因为经历了半年之久的炒作，缩减QE的利空早已被市场所消化，而“利空兑现就是利好”，缩减QE的靴子一旦落地，对黄金反而是种救赎。目前美国经济似乎受到严寒天气的影响而再现阴霾。虽然以新任主席耶伦为代表的美联储官员仍在为缩减QE说话，但显然黄金不为所动。
未来，美国的QE政策如果说会有什么变化，那只能是维持不变，甚至重启QE。这显然更是大大的利好黄金。而这并非痴人说梦。虽然耶伦与伯南克同为鸽派，但熟悉“大萧条”理论的伯南克偏向于自上而下的关注通胀等宏观目标，而耶伦则是自下而上的重视失业率与劳动力市场。在当前美国非农“梅开二度”，而严寒天气很可能继续影响美国2月非农数据的情况下，非农数据如果三度走差将影响美联储对中期经济复苏的判断，届时美联储将重新对当前缩减QE的步伐进行考虑。最新公布的美联储1月会议纪要中少数官员提到提前加息，令市场略感意外，金银多头闻风而逃，重启下跌之路。
但我们注意到，联储内部对前瞻指引、就业市场看法、短期利率前景等诸多问题都存在分歧，加息也是只有少数官员的想法。加息预期短期或将使金价承压，但绝不会是重大利空，因为本身黄金是对抗通胀的最佳选手，如果未来严寒天气的负面影响消退，美国经济重拾涨势，通胀预期提升，那么对金银更会带来利好。
本日金价预测区间1308-1332美元
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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