受政府限制 印度黄金进口量萎缩
关键字：印度黄金
印度《商业标准报》报导，自去年4月起的2014财政年度以来，印度黄金进口量快速萎缩，主要受到政府限制措施的影响，这可能使得至3月底的财年结束时，印度黄金进口量较上年度的846公吨大减40%至515公吨，此将创下10年以来新低。报导指出，受到去年4月金价大跌的影响，印度本财年前两个月的黄金进口量就达到304公吨，但随后政府提高黄金进口关税至10%，并推出80/20黄金进口限制措施（进口黄金需有20%用于再出口），这使得去年6-12月的黄金进口量仅152公吨，只有4-5月份的一半。而今年1-3月情况似乎没有好转迹象，业界预估黄金进口量约60-70公吨。GFMS Thomson Reuters分析师Sudheesh Nambiath表示，只要80/20的政策持续，黄金进口就很难提高，预计每个月的进口可能会被限制在25公吨以下；而印度财政部长本周稍早曾表示，本财年结束以前将不会解除黄金进口的限制措施。
GFMS贵金属需求经理Andrew Leyland预计金价会在2014年下跌，平均金价将从2013年的1411美元/盎司降到1225美元/盎司。Leyland称，如果把2013年当作美联储缩减QE对金价产生影响的一年，那么能看到的是机构投资者和避险基金有很大动作，这情况可能直到2016年都不会改变。2013年全年金价下跌近30%，黄金ETF流出量更是高达740吨。Leyland预计第一季将是今年金价表现最强的时期，尤其是传统上中国人在年初都有很大的黄金需求，会推动金价。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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