GFMS调查2014年平均金价1,350美元
关键字：GFMS、2014年金价走势
《俄罗斯之声》(The Voice of Russia)12月29日报导,Thomson Reuters GFMS的一项调查显示,分析师平均预估2014年平均金价将为每盎司1,350美元,此较今年的平均金价将下跌7%,不过较目前金价接近1,200美元的水平则将高出约150美元。其中对金价看法最悲观的大行要属高盛(Goldman Sachs),该行预期金价将下跌至1,050美元,较目前水平还要再下跌12%。
对明年金价预期最为乐观的是澳纽银行集团(ANZ),该行预估2014年平均金价将达每盎司1,450美元,主要将是受到中国大陆与印度的金币以及金饰需求的带动。盛宝银行(SAXO Bank)股票投资策略主管Peter Garnry则是建议投资人避开金矿股票,因金矿股不止今年的表现比金价还糟,如果明年度金价继续滑落,金矿商的表现有很大可能再度让投资人失望。
世界黄金协会(WGC)投资研究主管阿蒂加斯(Juan Carlos Artigas)认为与其把黄金当作单独的投资,投资者们更应该将黄金当作投资组合的中长期策略组成部分。在一个平衡的60%股票和风险资产与40%的现金和债券的投资组合中,加入5%到6%的黄金能为投资者减少风险并且增加风险调整回报。
资本经济(Capital Economics)商品研究主管Julian Jessop上周表示,一般认为金价2014年将持续走低,主要因为美国量化宽松将逐渐缩减的缘故;但鉴于投资人的情绪已经极度偏空,明年度金价将有反弹的机会。Jessop认为明年度金价将至少能看到每盎司1,400美元价位。金价今年以来跌近三成,预期将创下自1981年以来的最大年度跌幅。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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