黄金未受利空消息影响 避险性遭疑
关键字：利空黄金、黄金避险性
黄金的避风港地位最近黯然失色，过去两周美国政府关门、债务可能违约等利空满天飞，但金价自10月初以来却仍下挫逾3%。分析人士指出，以资金流向来看，芝加哥选择权交易所(CBOE)用来衡量市场恐慌气氛的波动率指数(VIX)似乎成为投资人爱用的避险新宠。
CNBC 16日报导，指数开发商NationsShares总裁兼执行长Scott Nations在接受「Squawk Box」专访时表示，随着全球市场日益虚拟化，投资人在动荡中将实体原料商品当成保值或避险目标的需求也逐渐下滑，而在美国，VIX等波动指数已成为民众想对「末日事件」避险时的最佳选择。
VIX可衡量市场对未来30天股市波动程度的期望值，当人们预期市场会有短期震荡时，就会作多该项指数，并在预期实现时获利了结。VIX与标准普尔五百指数呈现反向走势，在股价下跌时，VIX通常会被投资人视为有效的避险工具。彭博社报价显示，VIX在10月1-8日期间总计大涨了22.53%、8日当天更攀升至20.34点，之后就开始回软，至16日美国躲过违约险境时便跌回14.71点。
Nations指出，在10月8日当天，VIX选择权的交易量冲高至178万口，而10月16日成交量也高达124万口，皆远高于过去30日的平均日成交量(60万口)。
不过，瑞穗银行资深经济学家Vishnu Varathan表示，虽然他也对黄金的避风港地位失去信心，但不确定VIX是否仍取代黄金成为躲避全球经济风险的工具。Varathan说，VIX只与标准普尔五百指数密切相关，恐怕无法确切反映其他新兴市场的变化。
曾在6月底金价跌至本波低点之际喊出「黄金最坏状况可能已过」的《加特曼投资通讯(The Gartman Letter)》创始人及主编、知名经济学家加特曼(Dennis Gartman)也要大家知道，黄金其实不是大众所误认的避风港。
CNBC、International Business Times报导，加特曼23日在ETF暨基金理财网站IndexUniverse.com举办的第六届「Inside Commodities」会议上指出，黄金根本不是避风港，会这么说的人要不是自以为懂很多、就是骗子，因为避风港不会在一天之内出现2%的波动。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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