十年期美債沖頂，黃金跌破關口
關鍵字：十年美債沖頂
3月18日，現貨黃金出現巨大下挫，刷新本周新地點，美元指數走強，美債收益率的飆升都打壓了黃金對市場的吸引力，但隨著美股大跌，也促進了一下避險資產的買入行為，抵消了美債收益率上漲帶來的壓力，金價有所支撐。
10年期美債收益率突破1.7％後，期貨成交量暴增，引發新一輪拋售。在亞洲時段，美國國債已經面臨一定賣壓，倫敦一開盤資金流加速，紐約早盤收益率攀升至新高。美聯儲會議之前積累的多頭頭寸被解除，進一步加劇了拋售。持續整個交易時段的大宗交易令長期國債承壓，在晚些時候出現的現貨國債買盤推動下， 7年期和30年期國債收益率差收窄至日內最低點。中期國債跌幅最大，5年期收益率一度攀升10個基點，至略低於0.90％的水準，7年期利率上升11.2個基點，逼近2020年2月以來高點1.39％。
市場的通貨膨脹預期指標位於多年高點附近，交易員下調對美聯儲最早明年年末開始收緊貨幣政策的預期。紐市尾盤，美國國債收益率回吐部分漲幅，但仍保持較高水準。
美聯儲主席鮑威爾週三表示，他對近期長期收益率的上漲並不擔心，他的關注重點仍將放在金融狀況是否仍然寬鬆上。由於預期刺激措施和疫苗接種將推動更顯著的經濟復蘇和通脹回升，今年以來市場利率持續飆升。
分析師表示，隨著經濟復蘇取得進展，鮑威爾給10年期和30年期收益率進一步上行開了綠燈。在這些假設受到挑戰之前，潛在的通貨膨脹預期將保持高位，並且仍將是美國國債看跌趨勢的基石。就目前而言反向押注沒有好處。
隨著美債收益率大漲，週四納指重挫3%，美債收益率攀升似乎幫助了新一輪朝著週期性股票的板塊輪動。分析師a表示，在出現“市場噪音與某些避險資金流入”的背景下，科技股遭到拋售，黃金價格走高。但美債收益率的上升可能使金價的上漲難以為繼。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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