美歐貨幣政策分化嚴重，歐元創下新高
關鍵字：歐元創下新高
11月30日，歐元創下近三個月的新高，美聯儲將採取更多寬鬆措施，推動美指創下新低，同時疫苗研發的樂觀進展也提振了市場的風險情緒。此外歐洲央行行長表示，貨幣政策刺激經濟並沒有各國財政計畫來得更有效。
歐洲央行行長拉加德表示，利率將在相當長一段時間內保持在低水準，貨幣政策不能像財政措施那樣有針對性，財政和貨幣政策的協調起到了很大作用。債務必須在某個階段穩定下來，但不是現在，歐盟財政計畫不能被明顯推遲，歐洲必須在提供股權融資方面做得更好。
分析師指出，由於美國大選結果遲遲未決，讓議員的注意力不能集中在通過任何形勢的財政支出計畫上，因此投資者開始預期，美聯儲將介入，很可能在12月的下次會議上決定購買更多債券。
本周美國將公佈11月非農就業報告和ISM製造業及非製造業數據，預計非農新增就業人數將略高於市場預期的50萬，而ISM製造業和非製造業數據將低於市場預期。本周的焦點將是，感恩節之後，美國各州州長是否會選擇實施更加嚴厲的封鎖措施，以遏制第二波疫情。儘管更多封鎖措施會抑制美國股市，但美聯儲料將增加市場流動性的前景，應會抑制美元上漲。另外從歷史經驗看，過去10年，美元有7年在12月錄得下跌，因此預計美元在今年年底會溫和下跌。
未來一周在歐洲央行決議將至，且歐元區封鎖措施前景仍存變數的背景下，歐元匯價走勢可能出現反復，但之後在年底之前，歐元兌美元將重拾漲勢升破1.20並站穩於此關口上方，之後在2021年將在美聯儲進一步寬鬆政策措施的推動下繼續上升至1.25一線。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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