全球經濟面臨重創，低利率將是美聯儲長期計畫
關鍵字：全球經濟面臨重創
4月6日，全球競價受到巨大的通貨緊縮得衝擊，全球諸多國家因為控制疫情帶來的危機而陷入經濟停擺狀態，失業率明顯增加，這可能促使央行將利率長期維持在低水準。
令人擔憂的是，這可能會延長自大蕭條以來最嚴重的衰退。定價權的衰退使那些在經濟景氣時期大量舉債的公司更難履行債務，這可能促使他們進一步削減薪資和投資，甚至是拖欠債務、破產。
儘管價格疲軟或下跌對消費者來說似乎是利好的，但普遍的通縮性價格下跌可能對整個經濟有害。由於預期價格會越來越低，家庭會推遲購買，而公司則會推遲投資，因為他們認為利潤機會有限。
即使在冠狀病毒危機緩解後，停擺帶來的傷疤——失業率上升、消費者和企業信心受損以及就業機會交錯，這些仍可能抑制價格壓力，促使央行將利率長期維持在最低水準。
不過在未來道路上，所有的巨額資金（加上大量政府債務來支付對抗病毒的措施）可能會導致價格壓力的加劇。
全球消費者價格指數將在2020年中左右某個時候暫時低於去年同期水準，這是數十年來的首次，其中大部分是由於油價暴跌。儘管上周由於有可能減產的報導而反彈，但油價自1月1日以來仍下跌了約55%。
甚至在危機之前，貨幣政策制定者就擔心通貨膨脹率過低，不利於其經濟。現在，他們有更多的擔憂理由。
歐洲央行理事會成員羅伯特·霍爾茲曼說：“不能排除通縮的可能性，但是我拒絕做出估計。如果通縮是由於實體經濟的衰退，那麼僅通過貨幣政策工具將很難解決這一問題。”
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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