美債有可能大幅升值
關鍵字：美債升值
2月19日，美元指數出現小幅度上漲，因為英鎊下行，市場避險情緒升溫轉而投資避險貨幣等因素讓美元受到支撐，同時，美國聯邦儲備委員會大規模地購買美債讓美國國債在二季度大幅升值，美元可能進一步走強。
美國聯邦儲備委員會(Federal Reserve)大規模購買美國國債正在扭曲貨幣市場，這可能會讓那些押注利率前景的交易員更加困難。美聯儲一開始試圖緩解貨幣市場壓力，結果卻對全球一些最重要的借貸基準產生了意想不到的影響。
隨著美聯儲從去年10月開始每月購買價值600億美元的美國國債，收益率下降。三個月期倫敦銀行同業拆息(libor)緊隨其後下跌。當這種情況發生時，倫敦銀行間拆放款利率(Libor)與隔夜指數掉期(隔夜指數掉期是衡量聯邦基金利率的一個指標)之間的差距開始縮小。上周息差收窄至13個基點，為2017年以來最窄，目前仍接近這一水準。
這一切都意味著，押注美聯儲利率前景的歐洲美元期貨交易商的日子可能會更加難過。這些合約基於3個月期倫敦銀行間拆放款利率(Libor)，而不是聯邦基金利率(fed funds rate)，這種利差的變動可能會使獲利的交易變成虧損的交易。
去年8月，歐洲美元期貨的交易員也同樣措手不及。當時情況正好相反，倫敦銀行間拆放款利率/隔夜指數掉期息差大幅擴大，反映出在隔夜掉期市場下跌時，未能跟上美聯儲對預期進行鴿派調整的步伐。這一次，美聯儲在供應下降之際購買美國國債，導致利差收窄。
預計美國國債將在第二季度大幅升值，第二季企業也料將退稅投入優質基金，這些基金傾向於購買企業債券。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)建議投資者持有6月份FRA/OIS較9月份走強的交易。交易員週二注意到，隨著價差收窄，2020年6月歐洲美元期貨的看漲期權需求巨大。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
最新內容
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.