黃金受避險情緒沖高,慎防包威爾利空來襲
關鍵字:黃金利多
現貨黃金出現暴力拉升,一飛沖天,10月2日大幅飆漲,美市盤中最高上探至1207.74美元/盎司,跳漲近20美元。金價重新站上1200關口上方,站穩自8月24日以來的高位,同時美元也穩步上漲,美元指數持穩在95關口上方。黃金受到避險情緒沖高,發揮其最大作用,但同時慎防包威爾的利空消息來襲。
週二市場避險需求急升,在義大利新成立反建制政府執政的背景下,義大利堅持2019年2.4%的預算赤字目標引發了市場的恐慌,義大利副總理、反建制的五星運動党首迪馬約(Luigi Di Maio)表示,儘管受到一些威脅,但仍將繼續推進預算計畫,並警告歐盟不要干預,稱金融市場對持有偏見的歐盟的擔憂相當敏感,議員有權自由表達對歐元的看法。
週二黃金的大漲主要是受到義大利引發的避險需求的推動,但也有分析師指出,對週二的大漲要謹慎。股市的拋售使投資者十分緊張,因此也帶來了一些避險需求,但是反彈過分依賴股市的拋售,若金價不能升至1205美元/盎司上方,是很難吸引後續買盤的。對此次反彈,應持謹慎態度。市場參與者也將高度關注美聯儲主席鮑威爾在國家經濟聯合會前發表的講話,講話題目是“就業和通脹展望。”上周,美聯儲剛實施了加息,並表示在2019年末實施4次加息,2020年實施另一次加息,因經濟增長穩定,就業市場強勁。加息將會提振美元,從而增加購買和持有黃金的成本。
黃金價格飆升,擊穿了1191美元的阻力水準,其在過去的三天裡限制了漲勢的幅度,並突破日線均線匯合處1197/98美元,將漲勢延續至1200美元心理門檻上方。新一輪漲勢也突破了55下降均線1203美元水準,證實了新的強勁的看漲立場。在鷹派美聯儲推升美元之後,重新獲得強勁的避險吸引力可能會推動金價走高,以挑戰8月28日高點1214美元和1309美元/1160美元跌勢的38.2%回撤位1217美元這兩大關鍵障礙。金價需要收于1200美元水準上方才能確認漲勢,以產生看漲信號,暗示金價將進一步推進。
本文來源: 大田環球貴金屬
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