貿易局勢愈發緊張，美元積蓄多頭
美元指數未能延續上一個交易日的上漲趨勢，但是仍在95關口以上。利好非農強化了美聯儲年內加息兩次的預期，同時特朗普可能對更多的中國進口商品加征關稅，意在為美元提供支撐。
美元指數回吐上個交易日錄得的漲幅，上周五(9月7日)公佈的美國8月非農就業人口增加20.1萬人，好於預期，薪資水準創2009年6月來新高，強化美聯儲年內再加息兩次的預期，提振美元錄得外包日線形態。
美國8月非農就業報告顯示，雇傭水準強勁且薪資增長隔離，將支撐美聯儲延續加息進程，將於9月及12月利率決議各加息一次。
中美貿易緊張局勢持續，將在未來數日主導美元走勢。美國總統特朗普表示，除了2000億美元外還可能對2670億美元中國商品加征關稅，另據悉特朗普政府還考慮在對華貿易問題上動用網路安全制裁措施。
儘管基本面依舊利好美元，但由於臨近美國中期選舉，美國政治風險的溢價正上升，另外全球貿易政策可能仍對美元產生雙向的影響，貿易摩擦升級將利好美元，而降溫則利空美元。
過去幾周，投資者的注意力越來越被從新興市場資本流出所吸引。今年到目前為止，阿根廷比索和土耳其里拉明顯處於風暴的中心，與美元相比分別下跌了50%和42%。其他新興市場貨幣對負面情緒的敏感性，可以用它們不同的國內基本面來解釋。
對許多新興市場貨幣來說，美元融資成本上升以及(或)對中美貿易戰對世界經濟增長影響的擔憂，是今年資本外流背後的關鍵因素。
美元一直是主要受益者，預計將在6至9個月的時間內繼續受到良好支撐，歐元兌美元將在1.12附近觸底，明年下半年將進一步走高。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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