脫歐疑雲再起，加息根基動搖
卡尼鴿派講話導致多頭紛紛結清倉位，脫歐僵局可能深化均施壓英鎊，匯價自年內新高1.4377已大跌了300餘點，道明證券預計多頭或進一步平倉，短線風險偏下行， 西太平洋銀行表示英鎊面臨倉位調整風險，後市可能跌向1.40。
隔夜英國央行行長卡尼對年內加息持謹慎含糊立場，鴿派講話影響持續發酵，導致多頭紛紛結清倉位，加上歐盟將拒絕愛爾蘭邊界問題解決方案，脫歐談判的僵局可能深化，“硬脫歐”憂慮似已重燃，英鎊兌美元延續疲態，而美債收益率飆升帶動美元指數持續反彈站穩90關口，進一步施壓英鎊。
歐盟官員將拒絕英國處理脫歐後愛爾蘭邊界問題的潛在解決方案，這將深化脫歐談判的僵局。一位消息人士透露，歐盟只希望讓北愛爾蘭享受留在單一市場和關稅同盟部分地區的待遇。
而時段內立場鷹派的英國央行委員桑德斯的講話並未有效緩解匯價賣壓。桑德斯稱英國央行任何加息都將是漸進的，今明兩年的年均經濟增速將維持在1.5%-2.0%左右，小幅高於潛在水準，這並不意味著英國央行年內加息次數不可能多於一次，或快於市場預期。
實際上，目前來看英國央行5月加息能否成行尚屬未知，因卡尼將把表現參差不齊的經濟數據表現統統納入考量範圍，本周英國相繼出爐的通脹及零售銷售報告等均不及預期，均令5月加息前景蒙陰。
分析師認為英鎊兌美元短期風險偏下行，英鎊表現持續落後於其他G10貨幣，因疲軟通脹報告及“英國脫歐”相關的利空消息導致部分多頭平倉。相關平倉行為可能持續，體現了在英國經濟數據進一步走疲的情況下，英鎊倉位及估值水準看起來均處於極值。
此外，相當長一段時間以來，市場認為英國央行5月加息幾率極高，暗示資產市場已將此次加息計價在內，不過在市場交易主題頻繁變動的情況下，投資者們極有可能進一步結清英鎊多倉。
分析師指出，當前處於“英國脫歐”協商的甜蜜點，英鎊倉位持續建立，投資者們寄望在英聯邦峰會上達成貿易協定。英鎊兌美元已收復“英國脫歐”公投以來大部分跌幅，不過當前賣壓的傾斜暗示5月存在倉位調整的風險，後市可能跌向1.40整數關口。
本文來源： 大田環球貴金屬
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