投资需求暴跌过半 黄金难有起色
关键字：现货黄金走势分析
周四欧洲盘前，国际现货黄金继续震荡走低，刷新日内低点1291位置后开始出现小幅反弹，但是仍然受限于日内压力位1295下方，由于昨日美国经济数据表现突出，导致黄金空头出力打压，而地缘政治问题缓和也不利于近期黄金的走势，因此总体来说，黄金近期将会被空头市场所主导。
金价走低造成国内黄金消费下降。中国黄金协会近日公布的数据显示，今年上半年中国国内金条用金同比下降62%。而这一情况在上周末四大商圈的九大百货大促中黄金销售情况得到体现。据了解，广百、东百等黄金卖场3天录得千足金首饰同比增长6%和10%，而投资金条销售却下降近三成。有业内人士指出，7月份国际金价持续徘徊在1300美元左右，需求下降的现实仍是打压金价上涨的主要力量，多数机构依然看空后市黄金市场。
从中国黄金协会发布的分项数据来看，上半年黄金首饰用金426.17吨，同比增长11.02%；金条用金105.58吨，同比下降62.13%；金币及其他用金10.95吨，同比下降44.3%。日前，六福集团发布的2015财年一季度销售数据显示，同店销售同比下跌54%，与2014财年90%的同店销售增长相比，业绩跳水明显。周大福公布的一季度业绩店销售也大跌40%。这同样也佐证了以上黄金投资需求下降的观点
技术分析：由黄金小时图上看，黄金近期仍处于震荡下行通道当中，虽然在震荡当中伴有小幅反弹，但是由技术指标上看，黄金短期走势仍然不容乐观，短期均线粘合向下运行，KDJ指标死叉运行于50附近。综合来看，技术性短期均指向空头，操作上高位做空为主。
日内支撑位：1295 1293 1288
日内压力位：1298 1300 1310
由于近期美国经济数据持续造好，导致市场的风险偏好有所提振，资金纷纷离开以黄金为首的避险品种，加上以中国和印度为首的黄金需求均出现较大幅度的下跌，因此在技术面和基本面均带来不利影响的情况下，建议投资者日内将以做空为主，建议进场位置1298，盈利目标1292，止损4美金。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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