现货黄金价格上行修正 关注买盘潜力
关键字：本日现货黄金走势
本日亚市，现货黄金短线刷新1227.6美元/盎司，创12月19日以来新高。黄金多头逆袭成功，通过从2004年到2013年的净头寸比例统计得知，净头寸比例降至均值的2倍标准差（13.31%）以下的次数总共达到17次，在净多头头寸占未平仓合约比例触及上述极端水平的前30天，黄金价格平均跌幅为-2.56%（多头减少或空头增加打压金价下跌），而在随后30天金价普遍实现强劲反弹，其平均上行幅度达到3.16%。当前阶段看空倾向再度趋于极致，从11月20日开始至今黄金净多头比例就处于13.31%下方，故未来数周金价出现显著上行修正的风险不容忽视。
猜测推动金价反弹来自于美元的全面走弱，即时美国经济加速复苏，但美联储仍继续向市场注入超额流动性并可能打压短期利率，导致美元继续落后于以欧元为首的欧系货币。虽然11月美国CPI和PCE年率均小幅回升，但通胀总体依旧萎靡，若物价水平持续回落美联储或放缓撤出宽松政策的步伐。三季度以来美国就业市场意外加速复苏，月均非农新增就业人数连续数月超出市场预期，若改善速度放缓也可能成为空头平仓的借口。
本日现货黄金收盘价或许带来更多后市指引，在站稳1200美元以上视乎能否上试1240。
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本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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