熊傲君：通胀回落不如理想，美联储重现鹰派
进入2023年后，黄金价格的表现一度发挥出色，也曾逼近2000大关，不过仅仅过去一个月后，市场的风向又发生了急速的转变，由于连续的美国经济数据表现强劲，尤其是非农的出色发挥下，使得美联储有了更大的底气维持加息政策，再加上美国的通胀数据回落幅度并不理想，周初CPI数据仍然超过市场预期，这导致金价大幅下滑。
通胀数据依然处于高位
通胀数据在上年尾的回落一度导致美联储加快放缓加息的力度，因为在加息的背景下，经济衰退的风险正在不断升温，这也是金价大幅反弹的主要原因。不过在近段时间的经济数据来看，美国市场的情况还是比较乐观，而通胀水平没有预料当中的回踩力度，导致美联储的态度发生了转变，尤其离制定的2%目标还有相当长的一段距离，所以此前的利多信号反而转为利空。
美联储重新释放鹰派态度
在一月份的利率决议中，美联储如期加息25个基点，但是和此前相比，美联储已经减慢了加息的力度，而且整体措辞也属于中性的态度，可见在当时通胀有所回落的情况下，市场甚至认为年内有停止加息步伐的可能，不过随着最近的数据显示，美联储就重新释放出了鹰派的态度。美联储的几位官员都表示为了高通胀的风险，不得不继续维持加息一段时间。
现阶段黄金价格走势整体较为低迷，不断保持震荡下行的节奏为主，所以除非市场上出现了突发的事件，否则至少要等到下次的通胀数据回落或者有更加明显的经济衰退风险，因为这才会影响到美联储加息的决心，只要美联储态度不转变的话，那么短期黄金的走势可能还是不容乐观。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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