王垣鑫：通胀数据提振鹰派加息立场，金价空头或仍会发力
昨日早间亚盘金价回踩隔夜低点1696一线位置暂时企稳，不过日内反弹受到明显阻碍，晚间美盘时段价格反弹到日内最高位1706附近后未能成功突破上方压力，随后金价持续大幅度回落，直接在凌晨时段下破前低并触及1694一线低位，虽然现时价格跌势暂时放缓但也并没有明显的反弹迹象出现。
通胀数据助攻美联储鹰派加息
周二公布的数据显示，美国8月整体CPI年率录得8.30%，高于预期值0.2个百分点，低于前值的8.50%；8月核心CPI年率也较预期值高出0.2个百分点至6.30%，并且大幅高于前值5.90%。而周四公布的数据显示，由于汽油价格下跌利好支出，美国8月零售销售意外上升，而美国上周初请失业金人数下降。这些都增强了美元看涨理由。美联储一直担心，近40年未见的高通胀可能会改变消费者对当前价格冲击粘性的看法。而随着他们提高利率以降低整体经济活动和需求，劳动力市场将有所减弱。这将使政策制定者抗通胀工作变得更加困难。
美国经济存在不容忽视的潜在风险
美联储对高通胀反应迟滞，被迫大幅加息后导致美元飙升，引发的冲击已经开始显现。不少经济学家已经开始质疑，经济能否在失业率大幅上升的情况下度过这一轮通胀。美联储主席鲍威尔已经暗示，加息可能会持续更长的时间，并造成经济痛苦。但鲍威尔承认，下定这种决心行动并不容易。美国经济增速和蓬勃发展的就业市场将付出巨大牺牲。为了让实际通胀与未来预期趋于一致，美联储别无选择，哪怕不惜抑制经济增长，这个过程会导致更多美国人失业。但即便存在避险环境，加息会提升非孳息资产黄金的持有成本，金价阻力最小路径依然是下行。
昨日金价在经过一轮大幅度下滑行情后基本保持横盘窄幅整理走势，MA10均线体现出明显的压制效果，价格在MA10均线下压后承压下破整理区间，因此可以将MA10均线视为本轮下跌行情的关键压力均线。目前MACD指标双线仍在死叉过程当中，表示下跌过程或仍未结束，但KDJ指标三线持续在超卖区域内运行有调整需求，需要密切留意MA10均线对价格的压制效果。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
相关阅读
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.