王垣鑫：长期宽幅震荡，非农能否指引后市方向
关键词：十一月非农，非农前瞻
导语：今日晚间美盘将公布一月一度的非农数据。10月非农数据公布之后现货黄金价格持续震荡反弹，但价格一直未能够成功突破并站稳1800整数关口。10月下旬价格多次上攻不能突破后更是出现了向下回落的迹象，但幸好下方1760一线位置支撑效果良好，目前处于宽幅震荡走势当中。
大田环球贵金属提示：2021年11月公布的为2021年10月非农数据
- 市场基本面
美国企业新增就业人数超过预期。
美联储公布利率决议维稳于0%-0.25%区间。
初请失业金人数创疫情以来新低。
- 数据分析
美国9月非农就业人口仅增加19.4万人，相比8月表现更加逊色，远不及市场各界此前给出的增长50万人这一预期，与此同时，失业率却创疫情爆发以来的新低4.8%。不过随着新一波疫情的缓解和经济好转，本次非农报告新增人数料将大幅反弹。目前25家投行的预期显示，10月非农增加47.4万，失业率6.79%，平均薪资涨幅4.92%。
- 技术面走势
昨日金价亚盘开盘小幅回落后，欧盘站稳1770一线位置反弹，晚间美盘进一步扩大涨幅，日内最高一度反弹至1800整数关口下方，虽然后市有所回落但截至目前为止，金价仍在高位进行横盘整理。昨日金价大幅反弹录得大实体阳性形态收回前天所有下跌幅度后冲击1800整数关口，虽然目前暂时仍未能站上1800上方，但昨日大幅反弹已经对前方震荡回落走势造成破坏，短时间内金价仍偏向于宽幅震荡整理走势，区间为1760-1800。
- 非农布局参考
近段时间金价宽幅震荡于1760-1800区间内，如果晚间公布非农数据后金价失守1780一线位置，那么后市金价将大概率重新测试1760附近的低位支撑；但如果非农过后金价能够站稳1800上方，那么短时间内后市价格将进一步往近段时间反弹高点1810上方靠近。
（建议仅供参考，入市有风险，投资需谨慎）
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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