王垣鑫：金价沉迷震荡，市场等待非农数据指引
关键词：十月非农，非农前瞻
导语：今日晚间美盘将公布一月一度的非农数据。9月非农数据公布之后现货黄金价格持续走低，虽然在触及1721附近位置之后金价出现一轮较大幅度的反弹过程，但过后多头并没有进一步的发力迹象，目前震荡于1748-1770区间内。
大田环球贵金属提示：2021年10月公布的为2021年9月非农数据
- 市场基本面
9月份非制造业指数上升。
美联储公布利率决议维稳于0%-0.25%区间。
美国ADP数据表现良好。
美国上调债务上限。
- 数据分析
在8月非农就业数据意外爆冷之后，9月非农报告将成为美联储决定11月缩减购债的关键因素。目前市场普遍认为，只要本次非农数据与预期50万相差不大，美联储11月减码将是板上钉钉，甚至有经济学家认为只要新增就业岗位高于零，就足以达到缩减QE的标准。
- 技术面走势
昨天金价亚盘开盘后小幅走低，不过下方1756一线支撑效果比较良好，价格在站稳后于欧盘大幅反弹，虽然最高一度上探1766附近位置，但后市回落之后未能有效站稳，随后重新回落至1760一线位置下方。从日线级别上看，昨日金价探低回升后为能有效站稳，录得带上下影线的K线形态，整体仍交投于近期价格的宽幅震荡区间内，虽然MACD指标双线仍在金叉过程当中，但这种信号在震荡趋势当中并没有太多的指引作用，建议暂时继续留意1748-1770区间的震荡以及后市的突破方向。
- 非农布局参考
近段时间金价宽幅震荡于1748-1770区间内，如果晚间公布非农数据后金价失守1748一线位置，那么后市金价将大概率重新测试1726附近的低位支撑；但如果非农过后金价能够站稳1770上方，那么短时间内后市价格将进一步往近段时间只要反弹高点1782-1784一线靠近。
（建议仅供参考，入市有风险，投资需谨慎）
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
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