熊傲君：强劲初请数据，封杀黄金反弹希望
关键字：初请失业金人数，黄金市场基本面
导语：本周黄金价格的走势都偏疲软，自周二开始展开的下行节奏，令此前的上涨前景悉数被扑灭，现阶段价格已经回到了1800的下方，并且近日在此处持续受压，恐怕多头想要反攻，就需要率先重新企稳这一线。昨晚黄金在美盘初段曾有不错的反弹迹象，不过在美国的强劲初请失业金人数出炉后，这种希望再次落空。
初请数据创六月以来最大跌幅
虽然上周的非农数据表现不如理想，但毕竟此前已经连续两个月走强，所以市场也有一定的降温情况，再加上不少美联储官员的态度没有改变，所以非农带来的涨势基本上已经被消化。更关键的是，后续的就业市场数据是否有继续走弱的继续，因此每周公布的初请失业金人数情况就具有相当大的参考意义。
劳工部周四公布的数据显示，截至9月4日当周的首次申领常规州失业救济人数下降至31万，创下6月末以来最大降幅，显示劳动力市场继续向全面复苏迈进。不过最近的疫情回升，可能令劳动力市场稳定复苏局面出现中断的风险，特别是如果疫情促使各学区重新考虑面对面教育的话，所以就业的稳定性还需持续留意。
今年缩减购债已是大概率事件
非农数据的走坏一度导致市场对于美联储调整货币政策的预期落空，这也是黄金价格此前大幅走高的原因之一，但根据目前的情况显示，年内缩减购债规模依然是大概率事件。尤其是昨日欧央行已经率先采取行动，经济恢复更加迅速的美国，严格意义上已没有退路。因此，黄金价格在本周遭遇过山车行情，重新回落至1800下方。
在接下来的美联储利率决议当中，官员们的态度也是非常关键，因为对于未来的缩减步伐有巨大影响力，黄金的中长线基本面在此一举，而当前，已经有大部分官员认为要开始缩减购债。美联储理事鲍曼认为疲弱的8月就业报告不会导致美联储放弃今年晚些时候削减每月1200亿美元债券购买规模的计划。
当然，现阶段对于多空的判断还需要谨慎，因为即使开始缩减购债，也不代表黄金必然下跌，只是上行空间理论上会受限。不过大家也要搞清楚买预期卖消息的情况，当一切尘埃落定之时，或许金价亦有重新走高的希望。
本文来源： 大田环球贵金属
最新内容
相关阅读
Risk Warning
Trading bullion and financial instruments carries significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, requiring careful consideration of investment objectives, experience, and risk tolerance. Key risks include market volatility, leverage risks that can amplify gains or losses, liquidity issues that may prevent executing trades at desired prices, and technical failures in online trading systems. Prices fluctuate unpredictably, and past performance does not guarantee future results. CIDT Global Bullion Limited provides general market commentary but does not offer investment advice and is not liable for any losses incurred from reliance on its information, which may change without notice.
Jurisdiction Disclaimer
CIDT Global Bullion Limited's services are subject to local regulations and may not be available in all jurisdictions. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with their local laws. Services are not provided in regions where they are prohibited by law, under international sanctions, or require licensing that the company does not hold. By using the platform, users confirm they are not in a restricted jurisdiction and accept full responsibility for legal compliance. The company reserves the right to decline or terminate services in restricted areas without prior notice.